Example 1
Suppose 7 dice are rolled. What is the probability that at least 4 of the dice show the same face?
Example 2
Suppose that 6 job assignments are randomly assigned to 5 workers. What is the probability that at least 4 of the job assignments go to the same worker?
Example 2 is left as exercise.
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Discussion of Example 1
Fix a face (say 1). Finding the probability of that at least 4 of the dice show the face 1 is a binomial problem. Then multiplying this answer by 6 will give the desired answer.
Consider obtaining a 1 as a success. Let be the number of successes when 7 dice are thrown. Then
is
. We have the following calculation:
Multiplying by 6 produces the desired answer.
To give some perspective to this example, for each , let
be the event that at least 4 of the dice show the value of
when 7 dice are rolled. The calculation
above calculates the probability of the event
. In this example, the event
are mutually exclusive. This is the reason why we can multiply by 6 to obtained the answer in
.
If we roll more dice, the event may no longer be mutually exclusive. For example, roll 8 dice and let
be the event that at least 4 of the dice show the face of
. Then the events
are no longer mutually exclusive. To work this example, we need to use the multinomial theorem.
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Answer to Example 2